Can school exam grades predict a student's future well-being?

Contents:

• How and why the connection between grades and well-being was studied
• What we found and how we can explain the findings
• Why grades are not equally important to everyone

A study conducted by scientists from the University of York and the University of Leeds in the UK has shown that grades obtained in school exams can serve as an indicator not only the future academic achievements of graduates, but also their overall level of well-being in life. These results were published in the journal Developmental Psychology. These findings highlight the importance of school education and its impact on further personal development and quality of life.

How and Why the Connection Between Grades and Well-Being Was Studied

Research shows that there is a widespread belief in society that school grades reflect only academic abilities and characteristics that are important primarily in the educational environment. According to this point of view, academic performance at school does not have a significant impact on success in other areas of an adult's life. This leads to the conclusion that former students with mediocre grades can achieve the same heights as those who got straight A's.

To test the validity of this belief, the authors examined the life paths of 6,500 graduates who took the compulsory GCSE (General Certificate of Secondary Education) exams at the age of 16. These exams can be compared to the Russian Basic State Exam (OGE), as the GCSE certificate confirms completion of secondary education but does not grant admission to higher education institutions. With a GCSE certificate, graduates have the opportunity to continue their education at school, enroll in a vocational training program, or begin working.

The authors conducted a study based on a sample from the TEDS twin study, a project studying the development of twins born in the UK between 1994 and 1996. The study initially included over 20,000 participants, but to exclude the influence of family similarity on the results, the authors randomly selected one twin from each pair. The sample also included only those participants for whom GCSE exam results and responses to online questionnaires collected between 2017 and 2019 were available. As a result, the analysis covered 6,500 people, which made it possible to assess the relationship between school grades and life outcomes of the participants in early adulthood, at the age of 23.

The study analyzed the relationship between GCSE exam results and twelve characteristics of the adult participants. Key aspects of the study included the maximum level of education, university achievement (for graduates), employment and occupational prestige, as well as income level and satisfaction with it. We also examined factors such as receipt of social benefits, financial attitudes, general psychological well-being, the presence of anxiety, a tendency to engage in problematic behavior, including outbursts of anger, and the level of alcohol consumption. In addition to these parameters, the participants' gender and the socioeconomic status of their parents were taken into account. These characteristics can help to better understand how early educational achievements influence later life and well-being of adults.

What We Found and How We Can Explain the Findings

The studies show that exam results can predict 8 of the 12 characteristics studied. The most significant relationship is observed between grades and factors such as educational level, academic performance at university, and occupational prestige. This is quite logical, since most schoolchildren who successfully pass GCSEs with high grades continue their studies with good results. Higher education, in turn, opens access to more skilled and prestigious jobs, which confirms the importance of academic achievement for a future career.

Student grades are associated with a number of other characteristics. Those who receive low exam scores are more likely to exhibit behavioral problems, have below-average income, and are more likely to seek social assistance. At the same time, high grades indicate more stable financial attitudes and better psychological well-being. Thus, academic performance can serve as an indicator not only of educational achievement but also of an individual's overall well-being.

There is an explanation that many of the observed effects should not be attributed solely to GCSE grades, but rather to the higher education obtained subsequently. Research shows that people with a higher education degree in Russia earn, on average, 50% more than those who did not continue their education after school. This is due not only to increased income but also to other positive aspects, such as slowing cognitive aging. It is possible that the well-being of the participants in this study is associated not with their old exam results, but specifically with their recent university degrees.

The research focuses on separating the influence of school grades and higher education. The researchers analyzed the association between the participants' educational level and their other characteristics, excluding university performance, which was only available for those who completed higher education. The results showed that when accounting for GCSE grades and educational level, the latter variable actually moderates the influence of the former.

Despite educational level, school grades continue to influence personal characteristics in adulthood. School performance is an indicator of those qualities that can contribute to success in life, and this influence is manifested not only through educational achievements. The researchers suggest that factors such as openness to new experiences, conscientiousness, self-regulation skills, and intelligence level may influence this. However, these hypotheses require further study, as the current study does not provide sufficient data to confirm them.

Why grades are not equally important to everyone

A comparison of the data for boys and girls did not reveal significant differences between them. However, the study's results were influenced by the socioeconomic status of the participants' families. Low income and parental education were directly correlated with the magnitude of the observed effects of school grades. For students from affluent and high-status families, GCSE results often had little significance, while for their less privileged peers, they had a significant impact on their later life. This underscores the importance of socioeconomic context in educational achievement.

As one of the authors, Alexandra Starr, noted, the study's findings show that adolescents from wealthier and better-educated families have more resources to help them compensate for exam failure. For example, if they score poorly, they can turn to tutors to prepare for their next attempt. Therefore, to enter university, they don't have to compete for scholarships, as higher education in the UK is typically fee-based. Furthermore, these adolescents can secure more prestigious jobs thanks to their parents' social connections. While for teenagers from families with low social status, high exam results often become the only chance for a successful future and well-being in adulthood.

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