What future do experts predict for higher education?

Contents:

• The New World Around Universities
• New Technologies and Practices Within Universities

At the end of April, the Educause Association presented its annual Horizon Report, dedicated to teaching and learning in higher education. This organization is actively working to develop higher education through the implementation of digital technologies. The report traditionally highlights key trends in educational technology that have the potential to significantly impact learning and teaching methods.

An expert panel consisting of representatives from universities and technology companies from English-speaking countries, Europe, and Asia selected technologies, practices, and phenomena in the IT world that will have a significant impact on universities over the next ten years. Each participant identified key trends that, in their opinion, will shape the development of educational institutions, as well as the most important technologies for education. Based on their responses, extensive lists were compiled, and in a subsequent vote, experts selected 15 of the most relevant trends and six significant technologies. This process helps identify the main directions in which higher education will develop and focuses attention on those innovations that can significantly change the educational process and improve its effectiveness.

Universities' success in mastering future technologies and adapting to new trends directly impacts the development of the higher education system. In its report, Educause identifies four possible scenarios that could shape the future of educational institutions. These scenarios emphasize the importance of innovation and flexibility in approaches to learning, and also take into account the impact of digitalization on the educational process. Effective integration of modern technologies will help universities remain competitive and meet the demands of modern society.

• growth;
• constraint;
• collapse;
• transformation.

Let's consider the factors that could influence each of the mentioned topics. It should be noted that not all aspects presented in the report are applicable to Russian conditions, but knowledge of global trends will also be useful.

A New World Around Universities

The Horizon Report divides the main trends influencing the development of higher education into five categories. These categories reflect the key changes and trends shaping the modern educational landscape. Analyzing these trends highlights the impact of technology, changes in teaching methods, and the needs of students and employers in the labor market. Understanding these aspects will help educational institutions adapt to modern requirements and improve the quality of education.

Experts highlight several key social trends, including the spread of remote work, the widening digital divide, and pressing mental health issues. Remote work is becoming increasingly popular, which is affecting the structure of labor relations. At the same time, the growing digital divide between different groups of the population creates new challenges. Mental health issues also require attention, as changes in the work environment and the lack of in-person contact can negatively impact people's well-being.

Higher education, like many other fields, has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels of in-person activity. A significant portion of educational processes has been transferred to the digital environment for the long term. This change has significant implications for universities. With digitalization, the educational process is becoming more accessible, but it requires educational institutions to adapt to this new reality. It's crucial to rethink teaching methods, course development, and student engagement. Universities need to invest in technology and online platforms to provide high-quality education and meet the demands of the modern labor market. Students and faculty must master new skills and technologies to effectively interact in a virtual educational environment. However, the digital divide, expressed as unequal access to technology, poses a significant obstacle. This impact will only worsen over time, as many future students have already begun their education online at the secondary level. Differences in the quality of devices, internet connection stability, and home study environments significantly impact students' readiness for higher education, leading to unequal opportunities for students. To successfully adapt to higher education, it is essential to close this gap and ensure equal access to educational resources. Universities must consider the consequences of the digital divide and the impact of the pandemic on the health of students and staff, including psychological aspects. In today's environment, to retain their student body, educational institutions need to provide comprehensive support for both students and staff. This includes developing psychological support programs, access to educational resources, and creating a safe learning environment. Support and attention to the psycho-emotional well-being of all participants in the educational process are becoming important factors for the successful functioning of universities in the post-pandemic world.

Experts identify three key technological trends:

• the spread of hybrid and blended learning models;
• the overall increase in the use of technology in education;
• professional development of teachers in online formats.

The pandemic has become a catalyst for change in the educational sector, and these changes will not disappear with its end. Many teachers, previously skeptical of educational technology, are now actively mastering new tools and developing their skills online. This transformation is associated both with new requirements for universities and the need to adapt to crisis situations. Hybrid and blended learning formats ensure the sustainability of educational processes, allowing for easy switching between in-person and remote learning. Courses designed with these transitions in mind can thrive even in the most challenging environments, making them particularly relevant in today's world.

These include declining revenues from higher education, the need for specialists with relevant skills, and global economic uncertainty. These factors impact the labor market and educational institutions, highlighting the importance of adapting to changing demands. In the new economy, employers are seeking workers with up-to-date knowledge and skills. This creates challenges for higher education, which must respond to these demands by preparing specialists capable of effectively coping with the changing world of work.

Students and their parents around the world believe that the cost of remote and hybrid learning should be lower than that of traditional in-person education. In some cases, higher education institutions are actually forced to reduce prices for fee-paying programs. This also impacts the recruitment of new students, especially international ones, leading to a decrease in enrollment. In the face of increasing competition and changing educational formats, universities must adapt to maintain student interest and ensure access to quality education. Universities' costs continue to rise. Even those universities that secured the necessary infrastructure for distance learning last year were unable to fully resolve their staffing needs. Under current conditions, faculty and other staff must be retrained or new specialists must be hired. This is especially relevant for the implementation of systems to support the mental health of students and staff, which has become an important aspect of the educational process. Universities around the world are facing economic difficulties amid general instability. Questions about economic recovery and expected growth rates remain pressing. Like other institutions, universities in various countries are cutting budgets, halting hiring, and sometimes conducting layoffs. These measures are aimed at optimizing costs and adapting to changing conditions. It is important to consider that such actions may impact the quality of the educational process and scientific research, which in turn will affect the future of higher education.

Experts have identified several key environmental trends, including climate change, reduced business travel, and an emphasis on sustainable development. These factors are becoming decisive in shaping environmental policies and business strategies, reflecting the growing need to protect the environment and adapt to new conditions. Sustainability is becoming an important priority for both companies and individuals, contributing to the creation of a more environmentally friendly and responsible society.

Global climate change is having a significant impact on higher education. Extreme weather events, such as floods and wildfires, are becoming more frequent and affect the number of students that universities can attract in affected regions. This can lead to a decrease in the number of applicants and, as a result, a decrease in funding for educational institutions.

On the other hand, the growing attention to sustainable development creates new opportunities for universities. They are beginning to form partnerships to research climate change and develop educational programs focused on this pressing topic. As a result, educational institutions are becoming hubs of knowledge on climate and sustainable development, attracting students interested in these issues.

Furthermore, the changes in everyday processes caused by the pandemic are also affecting higher education. Reduced travel and commuting may lead to a change in the format of instruction, with an increase in online courses and hybrid models. These trends could permanently alter approaches to learning and interactions between students and faculty, which in turn will impact the quality and accessibility of education.

Current policy trends include increasing online globalization and the simultaneous strengthening of nationalist movements. Public funding of higher education is also an important aspect, becoming a key factor in maintaining educational standards and accessibility. Growing interest in global issues and national identity is shaping new realities, influencing political processes and public sentiment.

The global online education market is demonstrating steady growth, while traditional academic mobility is experiencing difficulties due to the pandemic and its consequences. Barriers to international migration have increased, with states periodically closing borders and incorporating nationalist rhetoric into their decisions. However, digital learning formats remain beyond these restrictions. In today's world, a high-quality university cannot function without students from other countries, offering them online programs or massive open distance courses. Online education is becoming a key tool for expanding access to knowledge and cultural exchange, allowing students from around the world to receive a high-quality education without the need to physically travel.

The development of universities within countries depends on the political situation: in some countries, universities receive support, while in others, assistance is insufficiently effective. It is difficult to predict whether higher education will retain its importance for national economies in the future and whether universities will be able to count on the necessary support. In the context of constant changes and challenges in the world of education, it is important to analyze current trends and adapt the development strategies of higher education institutions to meet the requirements of the economy and society.

New Technologies and Practices within Universities

Horizon Report experts identified key technological areas and significant organizational practices that are essential for higher education. Initially, the list included 141 items, but after several rounds of voting, six key technologies and practices were included in the final list. These results underscore the importance of educational institutions adapting to modern trends and requirements.

Experts rated each of them on a scale of zero to four, taking into account various criteria and parameters. This assessment system allows for a more detailed analysis of the quality and effectiveness of each unit, as well as the identification of strengths and weaknesses. Such assessments facilitate better understanding and comparative analysis, which in turn helps in making more informed decisions.

• impact on equity, inclusion, and educational outcomes;
• risks of failure and cost of implementation;
• adoption by faculty and significance for universities' recovery from the pandemic.

Technology experts consider artificial intelligence one of the most expensive and high-risk areas of development. Investments in AI continue to grow, attracting the attention of both large companies and startups. Despite the potential benefits associated with the implementation of AI in various industries, many uncertainties related to ethical, legal, and technical aspects remain. Thus, artificial intelligence presents both attractive opportunities and significant challenges for business and society as a whole.

Today, artificial intelligence is actively used in educational content management, proctoring systems, and in student and applicant support services through mobile apps and chatbots. Experts emphasize that most projects in this field are aimed at solving current problems in higher education. However, there are also a number of research initiatives focused on the future. In particular, they are studying how artificial intelligence can develop self-regulated learning skills and create knowledge-sharing networks, opening up new possibilities for the educational process.

Proctoring technology is increasingly controversial, as many consider it an unjustified invasion of privacy. At the same time, the development of artificial intelligence is fueling the emergence of services for the automatic rewriting of academic texts. These tools allow one to rewrite other people's academic work in a way that makes plagiarism extremely difficult to detect. This raises questions about the appropriateness of using such technologies in the educational process and how they impact the quality and ethics of education.

This practice is partially related to artificial intelligence. Data analysis covers tasks of various levels and scales, from individual courses and departments to complex projects. The importance of data analysis is growing every day, as it allows for the identification of patterns and the generation of valuable insights for informed decision-making. Optimizing educational processes and increasing their efficiency are key aspects that can be achieved through proper data analysis.

Learning analytics has received high praise from experts for its positive impact on educational outcomes. The analytics system can identify students who are struggling with assignments, who visit their personal account less frequently, and who demonstrate low engagement in courses. In terms of risk, learning analytics ranks second only to artificial intelligence. However, at the industry level, unresolved issues remain, such as data access, the need to obtain student and faculty consent for processing their information, and the ability of administrators to accurately interpret the results. Addressing these issues is key to the effective use of learning analytics in educational institutions.

The report presents examples of projects aimed at solving current problems in the field of learning analytics. One key aspect is the personalization of analytics using specialized dashboards that allow students to independently analyze their learning data. The development of strategies for the effective use of data is also discussed. In modern universities, the volume of data collected exceeds the capacity for its effective use. To achieve successful learning analytics, it is critical to identify the most relevant data and properly configure access to it.

Both online textbooks and more complex educational resources are available in the public domain. For example, these can include 3D models of chemical compounds, anatomical specimens, and even entire online games developed based on scenarios from professional fields. This program was praised for promoting equality and inclusion in higher education. Experts also noted the high adoption of open resources among faculty. However, the report emphasizes that, despite growing demand, the development of free textbooks and manuals is not progressing as rapidly as needed. Microdegrees are compact educational courses that provide students with knowledge of specific skills or topics. These short-term programs allow for in-depth study of specific areas often included in more comprehensive university programs, such as a Master's or MBA. Microdegrees are ideal for those seeking to quickly adapt to new labor market demands and improve their competitiveness.

Experts have determined that microdegrees have a low risk of failure, similar to open educational resources. These programs offer accessible learning with strong ratings across all positive criteria. Educators view this concept favorably, as it promotes equity and improves educational outcomes. In a post-pandemic world, flexible solutions such as short courses that can be tailored to the needs of the audience are worth considering. These courses are easily converted to a blended or online format, making them suitable for companies to upskill employees even during an economic downturn. The expert community unanimously recognizes the benefits of this practice, but does not view it as a revolutionary solution or a universal panacea.

The proliferation of microdegrees is an interesting phenomenon. Firstly, this market is experiencing significant growth: Educause predicts it will double in size in the next 3-5 years. Secondly, universities in this market face fierce competition from various educational platforms and institutions. Working with microdegrees requires universities to significantly adapt their courses, which may require recruiting new specialists and retraining existing staff. This underscores the need for a strategic approach to implementing microdegrees into the educational process.

Hybrid learning models represent the integration of various approaches that combine online and offline formats. This report examines a number of such models, many of which have not yet been formalized. The primary focus is on how to combine elements of traditional and digital learning to achieve maximum educational effectiveness. Hybrid models allow for tailoring learning to individual student needs, combining the benefits of interactive online resources with in-person classroom interaction.

Experts note that the cost of implementing modern educational solutions can be high, but the benefits they provide for achieving equity in higher education and improving educational outcomes are undeniable. Blended and hybrid learning models received the highest ratings for importance for the future of higher education. Many experts consider them key to developing flexible approaches that will help universities successfully overcome the consequences of the pandemic. The implementation of such models will not only enable adaptation to new conditions but also improve the quality of education, which is an important step for higher education institutions.

The projects described in the Horizon Report cover several key areas in education and technology. Reflecting current trends, they focus on innovative approaches to learning and the integration of modern technologies into educational processes. These include the use of virtual reality to create immersive learning environments, the application of adaptive learning to personalize the educational experience, and the integration of mobile technologies that provide access to educational resources anytime, anywhere. These projects demonstrate how technology can transform traditional teaching methods and increase their effectiveness, as well as how it can foster the development of critical thinking and creative skills in students. The Horizon Report is an essential tool for educational institutions seeking to remain at the forefront of educational innovation.

• Universities creating frameworks that enable faculty to design individual courses in new formats;
• Universities collaborating with software companies to adapt mainstream technology solutions (such as Zoom) to meet educational needs.

This section addresses a set of practices aimed at optimizing distance learning programs. Although these practices are expensive and second only to artificial intelligence-based solutions, their impact on educational outcomes exceeds all other technologies and methods. Investing in effective distance learning practices can significantly improve the quality of learning and student satisfaction.

Experts identify a number of practices that contribute to effective online learning. This includes the selection of technologies and approaches that optimize the learning process in a digital environment. For example, the development of university knowledge bases for faculty, as well as the creation of virtual exhibitions and museums that diversify educational content. It is also important to introduce instructional courses for students beginning their studies online. All these measures are aimed at ensuring that digital learning not only continues, but also remains high-quality and effective.