Will college enrollment increase amid the crisis?

Contents:

• Graduates can choose "a bird in the hand"
• Where to wait out the storm - in college or university?
• Will adults go to college?

Universities in the modern world face the threat of losing their audience due to the growing popularity of online learning, which has become evident with the advent of massive open online courses. Although predictions of a significant decline in interest in traditional education have not yet come true, another important trend has been observed in Russia: over the past ten years, the number of high school graduates choosing secondary vocational education over higher education has increased. This change underscores the need for universities to adapt to new conditions and address the needs of students seeking practical skills and rapid career prospects.

According to the HSE "Education Indicators" for 2020, only 47% of secondary school graduates continued their education at the secondary general education level, that is, in the 10th grade. The same number went on to secondary vocational education institutions, and the rest entered the labor market. After completing 11th grade, only 64% of graduates enroll in higher education. By comparison, in 2010, 73% of graduates chose higher education. These data highlight changes in educational trends and the needs of young people, which is important to consider when developing educational policy.

Research shows that economic factors have significantly influenced current educational trends. It's also worth noting the success of some colleges actively participating in the WorldSkills movement, as well as the declining interest in higher education. However, it was the economic factors that became most noticeable: for many students, studying at a university has become too long and expensive. Secondary vocational education (SVE) programs have a shorter course of study than universities, allowing graduates to enter the labor market more quickly. Moreover, higher education can be obtained after completing college, making this path more flexible and accessible.

Due to international sanctions, the economic situation has significantly worsened. Experts predict that the labor market will face serious difficulties. Rising prices and declining incomes will likely force families to cut spending. We asked researchers and practitioners whether high school graduates will forego higher education in the coming years, viewing it as an unaffordable luxury.

Graduates may choose a "bird in the hand"

Experts emphasize that it is currently impossible to make confident forecasts, as the situation is changing rapidly and data for analysis is insufficient. All assessments expressed by experts are subjective opinions. However, these opinions agree that higher education may become less accessible in the near future for a certain category of applicants due to economic factors.

The Executive Director of the Center for Testing and Development "Humanitarian Technologies" is responsible for strategic management and coordination of all processes related to the assessment and development of humanities skills. The director's responsibilities include project management, ensuring the quality of testing, and implementing innovative methodologies in the humanities. The center actively works to create effective programs aimed at developing critical thinking, communication skills, and creativity in students. An important part of its activities is cooperation with educational institutions and organizations, which facilitates the introduction of modern technologies into the educational process.

Photo: Kirill Kuznetsov

Kirill Kuznetsov is a professional photographer specializing in creating high-quality images. His work is distinguished by a high level of detail and an artistic approach. Kirill's photographs are able to convey the atmosphere of the moment and evoke strong emotions in viewers. He uses a variety of techniques and equipment to achieve optimal results, which makes his style unique and memorable. Each photo is not just an image, but an entire story that reveals the beauty of the surrounding world.

The demand for secondary vocational education may increase significantly, as many will face difficulties paying for higher education. Currently, a significant number of higher education institutions require tuition fees. Furthermore, colleges also offer many fee-based programs. If measures are implemented to allow free college education in various fields, along with guaranteed employment, interest in such programs will increase.

A leading researcher at the Federal Institute for Education Development of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), he conducts important research in the field of educational policy and practice. His work includes the analysis of modern trends in education, the development of innovative teaching methods, and the evaluation of the effectiveness of educational programs. As part of his research, he collaborates with various educational institutions and scientific organizations, enabling the implementation of cutting-edge developments in practice. The experience and knowledge of this leading researcher contribute to the development of scientific approaches to education and the formation of a high-quality educational environment in Russia.

Photo provided on the RANEPA website.

About 66% of secondary vocational educational institutions are located in rural areas. This means that families are interested in their children remaining nearby and obtaining a profession or specialty that will ensure their employment. It is important to note that universities are seeing a reduction in the number of state-funded places, and the cost of paid tuition is rapidly rising, making it inaccessible for many families. Therefore, choosing an education in rural educational institutions is becoming increasingly important, especially in the context of growing economic pressure.

Researcher Vera Maltseva from the Higher School of Economics believes that the flow of applicants to colleges will not increase significantly. The share of schoolchildren choosing college after ninth and eleventh grades is expected to reach 2020 levels, but no dramatic changes, such as more than half of ninth-graders switching to college after tenth grade, are expected. This is because economic hardship will not affect all students equally. Graduates from high-income families will continue to secure state-funded places at prestigious universities in popular programs. At the same time, the choice between less popular universities and colleges will be relevant for children from families with low socio-economic status.

Senior Researcher, Center for Skills Development and Professional Education, Institute of Education, Higher School The Higher School of Economics (HSE) researches current issues in vocational education and skills development. Its work focuses on analyzing educational programs and implementing innovative teaching methods, thereby improving the quality of education and adapting educational processes to the demands of the modern labor market.

Photo courtesy of the Higher School of Economics website.

In the context of the current economic crisis, households with low socioeconomic status will more actively consider pursuing a college education. This is because college offers the opportunity for rapid professional development and access to more stable sources of income. Given the challenging circumstances, such educational institutions are becoming an attractive option for those looking for ways to improve their financial situation and enhance their quality of life.

The Executive Director of the Testing and Development Center "Humanitarian Technologies" is responsible for strategic leadership and coordination All processes related to the testing and development of educational programs in the humanities. Its mission is to ensure high standards of quality and effectiveness of educational services, as well as to implement innovative approaches to teaching and assessment. The Center actively collaborates with educational institutions and research organizations, facilitating the exchange of experience and the implementation of best practices in the field of humanities technologies.

Photo: Kirill Kuznetsov

Kirill Kuznetsov is a professional photographer specializing in creating unique images. His work is distinguished by a high level of artistic execution and attention to detail. Kirill's photographs capture moments that reflect genuine emotions and the atmosphere of the event. Thanks to his experience and creative approach, he is able to convey the mood of any event, be it a wedding ceremony, a family photo shoot, or a portrait session. Kirill Kuznetsov's work has become popular due to its quality and originality, making him a sought-after master in the world of photography.

The demand for secondary vocational education (SVE) may increase significantly due to difficulties in paying for higher education. Currently, a significant portion of students are tuition-based, which is a significant barrier for many. Colleges also have programs that require tuition, which further exacerbates the situation. If measures are introduced to allow free education in colleges across various specialties, along with employment guarantees, interest in vocational education will increase. Education, accessible without financial costs and with the possibility of employment, will be an attractive choice for many students.

A leading researcher at the Federal Institute for Education Development of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) is developing and the implementation of innovative approaches in education. His work focuses on researching current issues in the educational system and developing recommendations for improving the quality of education. He actively participates in scientific conferences, publishes articles in specialized publications, and collaborates with educational institutions to improve educational practices in the country.

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Photo: RANEPA website

About 66% of secondary vocational education institutions are located in rural areas. This suggests that families are interested in their children not having to travel far and being able to obtain a profession that will provide employment opportunities. It is important to note that the number of state-funded places at universities is declining, and the cost of paid tuition continues to rise, making it unaffordable for many families. Thus, the development of educational institutions in rural areas is becoming a pressing task that helps increase the availability of vocational education and improve living conditions in the regions.

Senior Researcher, Center for Skills Development and Vocational Education, Institute of Education, Higher School of Economics. A specialist in the research and development of educational programs aimed at improving the quality of vocational education and adapting curricula to labor market demands. Her work focuses on current trends in the educational environment and the implementation of innovative approaches to teaching.

Photo: Higher School of Economics website.

In the context of the economic crisis, households with low socioeconomic status will increasingly consider college education as the optimal path to professional development. Such educational institutions provide a faster and more accessible way to acquire necessary skills, which is especially relevant in the current situation. Colleges offer programs that help students quickly adapt to the job market and provide them with in-demand skills, making this option attractive to those seeking to improve their financial situation.

Where to weather the storm – college or university?

Researchers believe that the rise in popularity of specialized vocational education (SVE) is not due to colleges offering shorter and faster programs than universities. In a context of economic instability, education takes on a different meaning. It is becoming an important tool for quickly entering the labor market, allowing graduates to quickly adapt to employers' requirements and change their professional trajectory in response to changes in the economy.

Head of the Center for Continuous Education Economics at the Institute of Applied Economic Research RANEPA develops and implements programs aimed at improving the qualifications and retraining of specialists in economics. The center focuses on current trends in economics and educational technologies, offering innovative solutions for professional growth. The director's primary responsibilities include coordinating the team's work, creating new educational initiatives, and strengthening cooperation with businesses and educational institutions. The current labor market is experiencing a contraction. This means that young people who have completed school or vocational education will have difficulty finding employment quickly. The issue of youth employment is becoming increasingly pressing. In such times, the education system acts as an adaptive mechanism, seeking to attract young people to pursue higher education. This will allow young people to better prepare for the changing labor market. Therefore, it can be expected that the state and educational institutions will take measures to increase the number of students in universities to help young people adapt and improve their competitiveness in the labor market.

Vera Maltseva also expresses a similar position.

In conditions of economic crises and high turbulence, investments in human capital, including education, become especially relevant. Studying at a college or university can be seen as a hedge against instability, allowing one to accumulate knowledge and skills for several years to come. Therefore, it is important for schoolchildren and their parents to understand the significance of choosing an educational institution, whether a college or a university. Enrolling in an educational institution opens up new opportunities and helps prepare for a successful career in the future.

The protective function of full-time education, including deferment from military service, remains significant for young men. Vera Maltseva believes that the number of applications from young people to colleges may increase. The expert also points to short-cycle professional programs as an alternative route to secondary vocational education. The possibility of introducing a deferment from military service for graduates of these programs is currently being discussed. This can increase interest in education and help young people in future employment.

Short courses in According to Vera Maltseva, professions, including online learning, cannot compete with formal education, such as colleges and universities. She notes that the number of students who will be able to focus exclusively on their studies without the need to work part-time, both in colleges and universities, will decrease. In most cases, students will seek to start working alongside their studies.

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The "Professionalism" program will launch in approximately 70 colleges in 2022. This project aims to improve the quality of vocational education and train specialists who meet the demands of the modern labor market. The program will introduce new educational standards and practical approaches, allowing students to acquire relevant knowledge and skills. Participation in the program is expected to increase graduates' competitiveness and their readiness for the workforce.

Ekaterina Yesenina emphasizes that significant changes in the labor market may contribute to the growing popularity of short educational programs among young people. These programs can be an attractive solution for quick employment in conditions of high unemployment. However, this approach may create new problems, including a lack of deep knowledge and skills among graduates, which may negatively impact their career prospects in the long term. It is important to remember that high-quality education and vocational training remain key factors for successfully adapting to rapidly changing working conditions.

One of the key state tasks is to take into account young people who have not completed a full education, but only vocational training. It is important to develop support measures for such young people so that they can continue their education through distance learning or in the evenings alongside their work. This will help avoid the formation of a "lost generation" in the future. It is also necessary to ensure continuity between vocational training programs, secondary vocational education, and, possibly, higher education. This approach will facilitate the integration of young people into the educational system and the labor market.

The head of the Center for Continuous Education Economics at the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Academic University of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) is responsible for the development and implementation of programs Continuing education in economics. The Center conducts research, develops educational courses, and conducts seminars aimed at updating the knowledge and skills of specialists in a rapidly changing labor market. The Center's specialists strive to ensure high-quality education and adapt curricula to economic needs, thereby increasing the competitiveness of graduates. The labor market is likely to contract, creating difficulties for young people seeking employment immediately after completing school or vocational education. The problem of youth employment is becoming increasingly pressing. In such conditions, the education system typically acts as a buffer, allowing young people to continue their education and adapt to changing market demands. Consequently, it can be expected that government agencies and educational organizations will take measures to increase student enrollment in universities. This will help young people acquire the necessary skills and knowledge, which in turn will increase their competitiveness in the labor market.

Will adults go to colleges?

One potential channel for the growing popularity of vocational education systems is the retraining of adults who have lost their jobs or are seeking to change professions to a more in-demand one. Experts note that colleges are not prepared to compete with organizations providing continuing vocational education, such as various courses. An important factor is not only the availability of a vocational training license and qualified teachers working with adults, but also a thorough analysis of the labor market and the rapid development of high-quality educational programs, says Ekaterina Yesenina. To effectively retrain, colleges need to establish cooperation both among themselves and with organizations providing continuing vocational education for methodological support, employment services, and employers interested in new personnel. Establishing and maintaining such communication is a task that requires attention at the regional government level. Vera Maltseva emphasizes that vocational retraining programs for adults will play a key role in the near future. Given the rapidly changing labor market and the emergence of new technologies, the need for qualified specialists is increasing. Vocational retraining will help adults adapt to changes by acquiring new skills and knowledge necessary for a successful career. This will not only increase their competitiveness but also open up new employment opportunities. In a dynamic economy, retraining programs will become an important tool for ensuring career advancement and improving living standards. Rising unemployment can lead to a serious problem of deskilling, when specialists are forced to move to lower-skilled positions without using their professional skills. This situation affects not only workers with average skills but also those with higher education. Many of them are already engaged in jobs that do not require high qualifications, which leads to the underutilization of their potential and a decrease in the overall skill level of the workforce. It is important to recognize these risks and develop strategies to maintain and develop professional competencies in a changing labor market.

Adult education in Russia is currently largely initiated at the government level. Maltseva emphasizes that the influx of adult students and trainees into colleges will depend on government initiatives. These measures can help stimulate interest in acquiring new knowledge and skills among adults, which, in turn, will lead to higher qualifications and competitiveness in the labor market.

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