Will distance learning become popular?

Contents:

• What was correspondence education like before: most young people needed a diploma
• Why the demand for higher education has begun to decline
• What changes have occurred and will occur: correspondence education will be in demand in the new structure of specialties
• Will families be willing to pay for education: "just for a diploma" - no. Why then?
• Why is career guidance necessary and who will need retraining?

Online bachelor's and master's degree programs have been actively developing in recent years and are beginning to replace traditional forms of correspondence and full-time and part-time education at universities. With the widespread transition to distance learning, many universities, including RANEPA under the leadership of Rector Vladimir Mau, emphasize that online learning is not simply a "correspondence course," but an innovative format for in-person education. This approach provides students with constant contact with faculty and a high degree of engagement in the learning process. Consequently, distance learning programs are viewed as less promising, highlighting the importance of adapting educational formats to modern requirements. Distance learning, in its traditional sense, continues to be an important part of both higher and secondary vocational education. According to statistics from the Higher School of Economics' "Education Indicators" for the 2020-2021 academic year, approximately 35% of students in Russia were enrolled in distance learning programs at higher education institutions. For mid-level specialist training programs, this figure is 14%. Thus, distance learning remains relevant, offering flexible educational opportunities.

In the new economic reality, there is a likelihood of an increase in the proportion of students studying distance and part-time programs, such as evening and weekend courses. Given that more and more young people cannot afford to study without working, distance learning is becoming a more attractive option. This allows for the effective combination of study and work. We discussed the possibility of increasing the popularity of correspondence and part-time educational programs with sociologist Galina Cherednichenko, who conducted an in-depth study on the topic “Correspondence Students of Higher Education: Social Behavior in the Education System and on the Labor Market” in 2018–2020 with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research.

Doctor of Sociological Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Sociology of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Academic Secretary of the Center for Sociology of Science and Education. He is one of the authors of the book "Correspondence Students of Higher School: Social Behavior in Education and the Labor Market." This work examines the interaction of educational processes and the labor market, and analyzes the social behavior of part-time students. As part of his research, the doctor is actively involved in the study of the sociological aspects of education and its impact on work activity.

Higher and secondary vocational education are expecting significant structural changes. Let's consider what happened before the current events and what changes, in my opinion, may occur in the future. It is important to note that the transformation of the educational system is necessary to adapt to the modern requirements of the labor market and ensure the competitiveness of graduates. New technologies, changes in the economy and the needs of society require a revision of approaches to education and the development of curricula. In the future, we can expect a stronger practical focus in the educational process, the introduction of distance learning technologies, and integration with employers for more effective specialist training.

What was correspondence education like before: a large portion of young people needed a diploma?

Since 2012, there has been a decline in the number of applicants to bachelor's and specialist's degree programs. The main reason for this decline was the reduction in the number of places for correspondence education. This is due to changes in educational policy and student preferences, who are increasingly choosing full-time education. The declining popularity of distance learning requires analysis and a search for new approaches to attracting students to offset the decline in applications and ensure the sustainable development of educational institutions.

For a long time, a significant portion of distance learning satisfied the need for general higher education, in particular, for a higher education diploma.

A diploma became an important and sought-after document, highly valued by employers from the early 2000s to the mid- to late 2010s. It opened doors to career opportunities and played a key role in employment, confirming the applicant's qualifications and knowledge. At that time, possessing a diploma was considered a prerequisite for a successful job search and achieving professional goals.

The modern labor market is seeing a growing demand for knowledge, high qualifications, and, above all, the ability to master new work skills and work methods. Since the early 2000s, the service sector has expanded significantly, creating a need for a large number of workers with social and general cultural competencies, as well as effective customer service skills. In a context of increasing competition, these positions were primarily filled by specialists trained in higher education. Thus, education is becoming a key factor for a successful career in the service sector and other industries that require continuous learning and adaptation to change.

A higher education diploma has become a confirmation of the necessary competencies and level of socialization. It provides graduates with what economists call a return on education in the labor market, expressed in higher wages. Having a diploma is becoming an important factor influencing career prospects and competitiveness in the labor market. Obtaining an education not only opens doors to new opportunities but also serves as a guarantee of professional growth and increased income.

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A recent study has refuted claims about the declining value of education. The results showed that education continues to play a key role in shaping career prospects and increasing income. Despite changes in the economy and labor market, a college degree remains an important factor for employers. This study highlights the importance of investing in education, as it fosters personal and professional growth. In a rapidly changing world, the skills and knowledge acquired in educational institutions remain relevant and in demand.

With the increase in demand from young people, the higher education system has expanded significantly. The main factor in this growth was the development of distance learning and the emergence of commercial educational structures. According to government statistics, at the turn of the 2000s and 2010s, correspondence students accounted for 56% of the total number of students and 50% of the number of university graduates. While at the end of the 2010s, when distance learning began to decline, about 80% of students were accepted to fee-paying distance learning places. This testifies to the significant role of distance learning in the higher education system and its demand among young people.

Why the demand for higher education began to decline

By the mid-2010s, the demand for higher education had declined significantly, which is largely due to the devaluation of higher education diplomas. There are many reasons contributing to this phenomenon, among which the key role is played by structural changes in the education system and the labor market. In a world where a diploma doesn't always guarantee employment and career advancement, more and more people are beginning to seek alternative ways to gain knowledge and skills. Commercial educational institutions and universities offering distance learning often fail to consider the current needs of the labor market, focusing instead on satisfying the demand for educational services. The interests of young people and their parents in choosing specialties often remain at the level of outdated trends, leading to an inadequate match between the number of trained specialists and the actual demands of the labor market. As a result, the composition of the graduate workforce fails to meet demand, both in terms of the number and diversity of in-demand specialties. This creates an imbalance that negatively affects the employment of graduates and the effectiveness of the educational system as a whole.

It is important to consider the low quality or Its absence in educational institutions offering tuition at minimal cost. Such commercial structures with low investment in the educational process often have a negative impact on the quality of education. This is especially noticeable in popular fields such as economics, law, and management, as well as in the social sciences. Most places in these fields are fee-paying, and their tuition is significantly lower than for engineering specialties. This creates the risk of receiving a substandard education, which in turn can negatively impact students' career prospects.

According to the results of our representative survey conducted in 2019, 56.9% of part-time students chose the "Social Sciences" program. Meanwhile, only 24.6% of part-time students chose engineering specialties. These data highlight the popularity of the humanities among students, which may be due to the relevance and demand for knowledge in the social sciences in today's labor market.

Comparisons between full-time and part-time education are a hot topic; however, there are currently no government statistics that would detail the distribution of training fields for each of these categories. The available information only provides general data on the structure of total admissions. Nevertheless, it can be assumed that within full-time education, training fields are approximately equally represented.

Today, part-time students, primarily pursuing education in economics, law, and management, face a limited choice of professions and training fields. This significantly limits their opportunities compared to full-time students, who have access to a wider variety of specialties and study programs.

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The number of people wishing to become managers, economists, and lawyers remains high. These professions remain in demand in the labor market, attracting the attention of students and young professionals. Successful careers in management, economics, and law offer ample opportunities for professional growth and development. In the context of the modern economy and constantly changing legislation, qualified specialists in these fields are becoming especially valuable.

What changes have occurred and will occur: correspondence courses will be in demand in the new structure of specialties

Understanding how the correspondence education system functioned is key to understanding the current changes in the training of specialists in higher education institutions. Given current trends, it can be expected that the educational process at universities will rapidly evolve, adapting to new demands and challenges.

The structure of training in higher education is outdated and does not meet modern requirements. It reflects the inertia of the demand for a diploma rather than a quality education. Even before the current changes in society, a process of transformation of the educational system, including administrative measures, had already begun. Since 2015, there has been a targeted reduction in the enrollment of students in distance learning programs in such specialties as economics, law, and management. This indicates the need to reconsider approaches to the educational process and adapt it to the realities of the modern labor market.

In response to the devaluation of diplomas in the labor market, young people have begun to reconsider their career goals. While the number of applicants to undergraduate and specialist programs at universities has declined, interest in secondary vocational education institutions has grown. Colleges and technical schools are becoming increasingly popular, and by 2020, the number of applicants to these educational institutions equaled the number of university applicants. This change indicates that young people are seeking more practical and in-demand professions, which in turn reflects the demand for mid-level specialists in the labor market.

This trend indicates that young people are increasingly choosing mid-level specialties over a traditional bachelor's degree. This is due to the growing demand for qualified specialists in the labor market, making such professions more attractive. In today's realities, young people realize that practical skills and professional training can provide them with a faster and more successful start in their careers than a theoretical education.

In a mobilization economy, an important question arises about the future demand for correspondence universities and colleges. Correspondence education provides flexibility, allowing students to combine studies with work or other responsibilities. In the context of changes in the labor market and the need for retraining, this is becoming especially relevant.

Given the new economic realities, distance learning programs may become key for training specialists in in-demand fields. Moreover, distance learning allows those on the cutting edge of change to quickly adapt and gain relevant knowledge.

Therefore, it can be assumed that the demand for distance learning universities and colleges in the mobilization economy will increase, as they offer an accessible and flexible education that promotes professional growth and adaptation to changing conditions.

The demand for distance learning continues to grow. It is important to understand that distance learning and distance education are not mutually exclusive concepts. Distance education can be viewed as a modern extension of distance learning that does not require students to be physically present in the classroom. This allows students to acquire knowledge and skills at a time convenient for them and in a comfortable environment. Thus, both learning formats have their advantages and can effectively complement each other.

Distance learning, like the entire higher education system, expects significant changes in the near future, especially in structural terms. These transformations will be aimed at improving the quality of education and adapting to the modern demands of the labor market. The transition to new learning formats and the use of digital technologies will be key aspects, allowing students to acquire knowledge more flexibly and effectively. Changes in specialties and training areas will focus on import substitution, reindustrialization, and the development of domestic business. This applies to a wide range of IT and engineering specialists, as well as industrial and digital technologists, specialists in logistics, construction, effective management and crisis management, and business analysts. In addition to technology specialties, colleges will emphasize tourism, leisure services, and the hotel industry. The primary focus will be on training personnel who meet modern labor market requirements and contribute to the country's economic development. Correspondence courses can partially meet the need for professional retraining. The main challenge is ensuring high-quality specialist training. In the current context of restructuring and the emergence of new businesses, there is an increasing demand for economists, lawyers, and financial analysts. However, it's not just a diploma that's important; it's the specialists' deep professional competencies and skills that matter. These qualities are developed at reputable universities and educational programs. Therefore, for a successful career, it is necessary to choose educational institutions that guarantee high-quality education and training of specialists in demand on the labor market.

It is difficult to predict what quantitative changes will occur in the future. The prospects for increasing enrollment in part-time and full-time education remain unclear, as we continue to observe the decline of the demographic wave of young people entering independent life. This circumstance may have a significant impact on educational institutions and their student attraction strategies.

From 2004 to 2016, there was an initial sharp decline, followed by a slow decrease in the annual cohorts of 17-year-olds. Since 2010, the rate of decline has slowed, and the subsequent period has been characterized by weak growth and stagnation in numbers. As a result of these quantitative changes in higher education, the main focus will be on the redistribution of structural components. This may entail changes in the demand for educational programs and the adaptation of educational institutions to new conditions.

The pace of change in the education system depends on the readiness of universities and colleges to adapt to modern requirements. The Russian education system is highly inert, making it difficult to quickly implement new programs and courses. This requires training qualified teachers and providing appropriate equipment, especially in technical specialties. It is also crucial to establish strong relationships between universities and employers, which could include recommendations and developments from organizations such as the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and Delovaya Rossiya. These interactions will help universities and businesses tailor educational programs to meet the current needs of the labor market.

Reading literature is an important aspect of personal development and broadening one's horizons. It not only allows one to acquire new knowledge but also develops imagination, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence. Reading helps improve vocabulary and the ability to express one's thoughts. Regular reading helps one better understand the world and people around us, which, in turn, contributes to improved social skills. The choice of literature can be varied: fiction, scientific articles, biographies, and other genres. Each work brings a unique experience and new perspectives, making reading not only useful but also engaging. Don't miss the opportunity to immerse yourself in the world of books and enrich your life with new experiences.

The expert believes that IT training should be conducted not at universities, but directly in industry companies. This approach will better prepare specialists for real market demands, providing practical skills and knowledge. Training in a corporate environment can create a more effective educational model, where students will work on relevant projects and gain experience from professionals. This also promotes closer interaction between the educational process and business needs, which in turn increases the competitiveness of graduates.

Will families be willing to pay for education: "just for a diploma" - no. And for what then?

The future of educational institutions depends on their ability to offer programs in relevant and in-demand professions. A diploma will be valuable only to a small group of people who do not need its recognition in the labor market. It's important for educational institutions to focus on training specialists in line with modern requirements and employer needs. This will allow graduates not only to gain knowledge but also to compete successfully in the labor market.

Families will want their children to attend universities and colleges to weather economic turbulence. Parents who can support their adult children prefer that they temporarily avoid job searches during uncertain times. This allows young people to focus on learning and acquiring the necessary skills, which will further enhance their competitiveness in the labor market. In a changing economic climate, investing in education is essential, as it can be the key to a successful career in the future.

Evaluating the future of the education system is difficult due to its social structure. Different social groups have different access to various forms of education, including full-time and part-time. Chances of admission to selective, prestigious, mass, or lesser-known universities and educational programs vary significantly. These differences impact the quality of education and students' subsequent career opportunities, underscoring the importance of equal access to educational resources for all segments of the population.

Even families with sufficient budgets to support their child's education at university for a long time strive to use this period effectively. They focus on acquiring relevant and competitive skills that will be in demand in the labor market.

Simply "sending" a child to university is impossible. Modern parents are approaching the educational process in a new way. Many recognize the importance of shaping their child's educational and professional trajectory. This requires a constant accumulation of knowledge and skills, transitioning from one level to another, and choosing specializations, which may have various names. Therefore, even those with the necessary resources will not keep their children in college or university, believing that this will free them from unemployment. It is important to actively participate in your child's educational journey to ensure their successful future.

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Paid education is becoming increasingly popular. Many people choose to pay for it to improve their skills and improve their career prospects. The main areas most often studied for a fee include IT specialties such as programming and web design. Courses in marketing, project management, and finance are also in demand. Paid education in medicine and psychology also attracts a large number of students. In addition, many choose foreign language courses, which help expand their employment opportunities. Thus, paid education provides a wide range of opportunities for professional growth and self-realization.

Why is career guidance necessary and who needs retraining?

Unemployment particularly affects socially vulnerable groups, including parents and young people. Young people from families with limited cultural, social, and material resources often find themselves in a difficult situation. They are less informed about modern educational and employment opportunities, which hinders their path to a successful career. It is important to ensure access to up-to-date information about professions and educational institutions so that young people can make informed decisions about their future and find real employment prospects.

Research shows that the majority of correspondence students come from families of mid-level professionals and skilled workers. Many of them, entering university after school, do not have a clear understanding of current trends in the labor market and choose specialties based on the principles of "where it is easier" and "where it is cheaper." At the same time, young people from democratic backgrounds have a better chance of success if they have work experience and make informed career choices. This underscores the importance of early career guidance and informing young people about opportunities in the labor market.

Cultural capital functions because education levels and cultural practices, such as reading, information analysis skills, theater and museum visits, and tourism, are distributed unevenly across different social strata. People with high levels of cultural capital have a clearer understanding of how to shape the educational and professional trajectories of their children. This highlights the importance of access to cultural resources and educational opportunities, which can significantly impact a child's future prospects and success in society.

Career guidance can have a significant impact on a person's career path. In today's environment, many face a lack of resources to realize their ambitions. This leads to more and more people accepting job offers they might have previously rejected. It is important to recognize that the right career choice and ongoing skill development can help avoid unattractive employment options and create a more sustainable career.

Russian youth will choose construction technical schools, as this will provide them with good earning opportunities. Qualified mid-level specialists in construction will be in high demand, and the number of construction projects will continue to grow. Studying at technical schools will allow young people to acquire the necessary skills and knowledge for a successful career in this field.

Retraining is becoming an important topic in light of current economic changes. A significant number of people, especially those who worked in intermediary businesses with Western partners, have lost their jobs. Many of them have a general higher education and need to obtain a relevant specialty that meets labor market requirements. The challenges associated with retraining will be significant. This task requires attention from both formal continuing education and distance learning. More and more people are expected to turn to distance learning programs at universities and technical schools, creating a high demand for a variety of corporate and private forms of retraining. This opens new opportunities for the development of educational programs that can effectively respond to the challenges of the times and help people adapt to new conditions.

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